By Leslie Blevins
There has been a lot of certainty lately about what homes at Village Farms will cost. Too much certainty compared to what the facts actually show.
Project opponents continue repeating that every home in the development will “start at $740,000,” as if that number is locked in, guaranteed, and unavoidable. It isn’t.
The $740,000 hypothetical figure being cited comes from a fiscal modeling assumption for a hypothetical average 1,740 sq ft home used in an economic analysis — not from a builder price sheet. The modeling assumption itself states that medium-density homes are projected at an AVERAGE sales price of $740,000 not starting sales price.
But that number was used to estimate tax revenue. It was NOT a declaration of a minimum sales price. There is a big difference between a modeling input and a market reality.
The truth is, we do not know what homes will cost in five to ten years when these units are actually built. Construction costs fluctuate. Interest rates change. The economy shifts. Lending standards evolve. Labor markets tighten and loosen. Anyone claiming certainty about 2029 home prices is speculating.
So instead of predicting the future, let’s look at the present. For 2025 in Davis, a total of 322 single family homes sold with an average sales price of $1,008,145 ($498 per sqft) for an average home size of 2055 sqft. A total of 82 smaller units including condos, townhouses and half-plexes sold in 2025 for an average sales price of $586,652 ($477 per sqft.) with an average size of 1249 sqft..
These are not projections. These are current numbers.
That means even the projected $740,000 average for new medium-density homes sits below today’s average single-family home price. In today’s market at the $477 per sqft. average for smaller units, the townhomes and half-plexes would be priced around $405,450 (based on 850 sqft.). The single-family homes in the medium-density zone would be starting in the $550,000 range (based on 1,100 sqft).
We also need to remember that 360 of the 1,800 units at Village Farms are designated as affordable rental housing — 20% of the entire project. Those units are not $740,000 homes. They are income-restricted rentals serving very low, low, and moderate-income households. Saying “everything starts at $740,000” ignores these realities.
But beyond correcting the numbers, we need to talk about the larger issue: supply. The same report clearly states that Davis’ high housing costs are principally the result of a supply and demand imbalance. That isn’t controversial. It’s basic economics.
For years, we have built very little new ownership housing in Davis. At the same time, we have watched demand remain strong because people want to live here — for our schools, our university, our quality of life. When supply stays flat and demand persists, prices rise.
When new homes are added — even higher-priced ones — they create movement in the market. A family moves into a new home and frees up an older one. That older home becomes attainable to a different buyer. That process, often called filtering, is how markets gradually improve affordability over time.
Will Village Farms make Davis suddenly inexpensive? Of course not. But refusing to build housing because we are afraid it won’t be cheap enough guarantees one thing: continued scarcity.
What will existing Davis homes cost in four or five years if we continue to limit supply? If today’s average single-family home is already $1.0M what happens if we build nothing? That is the real question.
This debate deserves facts, not inflated numbers. It deserves an honest conversation about what we can control — land use, zoning, housing types — and what we cannot control — interest rates, construction costs, national economic cycles.
We cannot predict exact prices years from now. But we can choose whether we allow more housing options into the market. If we want young families, professionals, teachers, and working households to have a path to ownership in Davis, we need more homes — in a range of sizes and price points — not fewer.
Let’s debate Village Farms thoughtfully. But let’s do it using real numbers and real economics, not fear.
About me: I have lived in Davis for 24 years and have worked as a real estate professional serving Yolo County for more than two decades. Deeply involved in the community, I have volunteered with local schools including Patwin Elementary, Emerson Junior High, DaVinci Charter Academy, and Davis Senior High School. I was a board member of the Davis Schools Foundation and have also volunteered with youth programs such as AYSO and local 4-H. I currently serve as a board member and am the past president of the Yolo County Association of Realtors.
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