So, we are ALL dealing (even those in denial) with the corona virus threat.  And I believe that everyone is trying to be as conscientious as possible in our decision making.  Which is a bit of a challenge given that we have so very, very, very little testing data to know "how big this thing is" and that includes we lack community level data regarding who has the virus.  

Even with the lack of large scale data which has been done in South Korea, we seem reasonably confident in some "knowns":

1.  The virus is contagious: "Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average.".  This means…. it is going to spread. (https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html)
2. The people who are most vulnerable are seniors and especially seniors with pre-existing health conditions. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-100/2020/03/17/f8d770c2-67a8-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html).  Others, such as children, may get the virus but are not being affected by the virus nearly as much.  
3. The reality is, most people who get the virus DO NOT SHOW SYMPTOMS.  At all.  And that goes for adults, seniors, and children.  This is a game changer.

So, work with me on this one.  If you think there is a flaw in my thinking, please bring it up.  (But do your homework and think rigorously, I have been working on this and run it past some very smart people who think I might have a good point here.).

If the most vulnerable are our seniors and the least harmed are our children…. and the children can be/are unwitting transmitters…. then when we look at the decision to suspend school we have two main options:

1. Keep the kids in school.  This is the "base case" or default position.
2. Send the kids home.  This is the "novel case" (named after the "novel virus").

It is also novel because I don't think that this situation…. send the kids home for a month has ever happened before.  No big deal if it has, I just don't recall it in 30+ years in Davis.

Ok, so it looks like the School District, at the urging of the Yolo County Public Health Department chose Option 2:  Send the kids home.  This seemed reasonable, the desire was to implement "social distancing" which would theoretically "flatten the case curve" which would delay, but not reduce, the incidence of illness.  

But theoretically is theoretically and we live in the real world, don't we?  

So, how does this work?  Let's examine a "theory of action" or take it step by step in the implementation phase.  

So, with essentially no warning or time for preparation, the parents are told "Take 'em, they're yours for the next month" and last Saturday received their children for the duration…. estimated to be one month or until April 12th.  How are the families going to manage this?

The families that I talked to are scrambling.  Some families have a stay at home parent (Mom or Dad) who can step up to have the kids full time (and don't think that this new situation is an easy adjustment or stress free).  In some families, both parents are working but they have a baby sitter for at least some of the time the kids will now be at home.  For some families, their kids are old enough and responsible enough to be left home alone (some estimates are that there are approximately two families in Davis that meet this criteria).  And for the rest of the families, the strategy is "call in the grandparents"!

Across the US almost 40% of grandparents already care for their grandchildren and the percentage is expected to go up during this corona virus crisis. (https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241226456.html)

So, let me ask you…. and I'd love to be wrong….. did we just create the circumstances to give our seniors in this community the MAXIMUM exposure to the corona virus by dismissing the kids from school before any of them could be tested?  Instead of "flattening the curve" have we, by spreading out the kids into the community and in heightened contact with their grandparents, actually accelerated the curve?  

I am sure that all of you have seen the kids in Davis out and about… and of course spending more time at home.  Is the "law of unintended consequences" gonna come and bite us on the rear end as our elders, with this heightened exposure from the kids who have been sent home from school, come down with this disease in increasing numbers?

All thoughtful comments, reflections, and even rebuttals are welcome.  I'm just concerned and wanted to share that with you.

Regards,

John

Council asked to give broad and ill-defined powers to City Manager

By Colin Walsh

The City of Davis has announced a “special meeting” for tomorrow evening to address the COVID-19 virus and local situation. The agenda contains only 3 action items:

• A proclamation of local emergency
• Urgency Ordinance Adopting Emergency Regulations Related to Evictions
• Closed Session with the city attorney on a matter posing a threat to the public’s right of access to public services or public facilities

The proclamation of emergency grants considerable authority to the City Manager.

The City Manager or their designee is to be the head of the local emergency response and they will have latitude to purchase supplies as needed and to “to ensure the continued operations of essential city services, including but not limited to police, fire, water, streets and highways, wastewater, or solid waste services.”

“The City Manager is further authorized to take any necessary actions to approve plans and specifications; to award and execute construction contracts, amendments, and equipment purchase contracts where sufficient funds have already been budgeted in appropriate programs for these purposes or where appropriate funds can be identified; to approve subdivision improvements, final maps, and parcel maps; to accept modify, or quit claim easements; to apply for or accept grants, and to approve budget adjustments.”

This ordinance gives the City Manager latitude to address the potential looming COVID-19 health crisis, by giving the ability to approve emergency development without council approval, like a new hospital for example.

The language “to approve plans and specifications,” and “to approve subdivision improvements, final maps, and parcel maps; to accept modify, or quit claim easements,” also seems to give the City Manager the authority to advance new non-emergency development, like new apartment complexes, housing subdivisions, or business developments.

[edit 3/17/2020 12:15am] – much of the language cited in the paragraph above "The City Manager is further authorized… budget adjustments." is largely the same as resolutions the council passes when they take a summer recess, for example this one from the summer of 2018 and actually grants fairly limited power to the City manager as it relates to new development.

What is most notable here is instead this language, "In order to reduce the number of necessary public City Council meetings." The City Council will be considering whether or not to essentially take a recess or at least to meet less for an undefined period of time. Usually recess resolutions like this have a defined end date, but in the case of the emergency resolution, no end date is defined. Instead, the City Managers extra authorities only ends when the council votes to end the declaration of emergency.

Thank you to Council Member Frerichs for explaining some of this. [end edit]

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Mace Business Park developer pushes for development while so many others are concerned for the effects of Covid-19 on Davis, California and beyond.

By Colin Walsh

While our community reels from school shutdowns and unprecedented uncertainty, as there are runs on essential foods at the stores, as many fear for their health or their paychecks, while we are experiencing significant economic disruption, Dan Ramos pushes on with his massive Business Park development project.

Ramos chose this time, of all times, to publish  an opinion titled, "Commentary: ARC would improve traffic conditions" in the Davis Enterprise.

Ramos chooses now to lie to us that 24,000 more vehicles from the business park on Mace every day will “improve our traffic.” Just look at all of these factors that will make the traffic so much worse from page 33 of the just released Supplemental EIR in this image.

Ramos chooses now to claim that, “local road improvements associated with the project’s buildout will improve traffic flows.” What is he talking about? The project description offered no road improvements to existing roads at all, and notice Ramos doesn’t claim the project will fund any improvements either.

Ramos chooses now to tell us that the non-existing affordable housing plan will bring “unprecedented construction of new affordable housing.” False – I was there at the Commission when Ramos’s representative said they hoped to pay in lieu fees and/or locate any affordable housing outside of the project area.

Ramos chooses now to claim that, “It will generate millions of dollars in new revenue for city needs and services,” but there is no analysis yet of the revenue generated by the current proposal.

Ramos, please for the sake of the community, give it a rest.

We don’t have time for your smoke and mirrors right now.

Mr. Ramos, there is just no time for this silliness. No time to counter all of your blatant fallacious Orwellian misinformation.

Your misleading propaganda piece today clearly demonstrates that your project must be put on hold until it can be properly vetted.

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There will be an Emergency Meeting of the Davis Joint USD today, March 13, 2020 9:00AM.

The meeting will take place in the District Office, Large Conference Room, 526 B Street, Davis, CA 95616. 

The Agenda is fairly cryptic but there can be little doubt what is being considered – the board will likely be deciding on whether or not to keep DJUSD schools open in light of the Covid-19 virus.

The Agenda includes the following:

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