Month: April 2020

https://images.app.goo.gl/ggpTgjQXgs5D9SQ9A

Dear Friends,

In science we have "stronger evidence" and "weaker evidence" as we rarely have proof.  But stronger evidence is a whole lot better than weaker evidence.  And it is more "actionable"…. that is, it is something that is solid enough for us to act on.

We want our government to use the most current and robust science to make decisions.  Particularly big decisions like "sheltering in place" and closing or restricting access to parks and other amenities that have well known health promotion effects.

So, in this ongoing discussion of the corona virus/covid-19, the flu, etc, let's pay attention to the level of evidence that "experts" are using to make decisions for our society.  

And let's consider whether or not we properly fund our Federal, State, and Local public health agencies which are supposed to track illnesses (who is sick from or dying from what?) enough to actually do their jobs.

Respectfully,

John

PS  Please check out the link to Evidence Pyramid.

Dear Yolo County folks… the numbers for CV/Covid in Yolo County as so small it is hard to make statistical inferences from them.

But not so for Santa Clara County, Northern Caifornia's worst zone for the corona virus.  Here is the link to the Santa Clara County Public Health Department Corona Virus Dashboard:

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novelcoronavirus/Pages/dashboard.aspx

Please note the large sample size from this pool of symptomatic patients who were referred by their provider for the CV test:  11607 tests.  Results:  10.55% were positive and 89.45% were negative.  The average turnaround time for the test was 2.88 days.

Please note:  Santa Clara folks tell me that those positive results are "tight".  Their testing standards are such that they avoided false positives as much as possible.

As you can imagine these results raise a lot of questions:

1. Did you expect the percentage of "positives" to be higher?
2. If 89% of these symptomatic patients were negative, what ailment do they actually have?
3. What next?  What course do we take with these results.

This is National Public Health Week folks…. let's appreciate what public health people do including their unusual skills in analyzing data.  This is not a clinical skill, this is a PUBLIC HEALTH skill.

Enjoy the dashboard viewing!

John J. Troidl, MBA, PhD

(I have a PhD in public health and have also taught various courses in public health for a number of years).

Unprecedented Push for Development in Uncertain Times

City of Davis Commissions directed to focus on huge development project as top USA officials describe this week as "the hardest and saddest", "Pearl Harbor… our 9/11 moment" and "shocking to some".

Davis family discusses Aggie Research Campus DEIR prior to participation in Commission meetings.

Photo credit: https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/rare-photos-of-bomb-shelters-through-history.html/

"This is going to be the hardest and saddest week of most Americans' lives, quite frankly," U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams told "Fox News Sunday." "This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it's not going to be localized. It's going to be happening all over the country."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said bluntly on CBS's "Face the Nation" show, "This is going to be a bad week. It's going to be shocking to some." – Globalsecurity.org, April 5, 2020.

***

City of Davis Staff monitors virtual meeting for Zoom bombers.
Photo credit: http://sites.austincc.edu/caddis/versailles-to-pearl-harbor-2/

SO then why is the City of Davis continuing the process to review the huge, far-reaching Aggie Research Campus proposal this week? The Bicycling, Transportation and Street Safety (BTSSC) and Open Space and Habitat (OSHC) Commissions – all volunteers – are being tasked to review and thoughtfully comment on hundreds of pages of documentation for meeting this week – the OSHC meeting is at 6:30pm today – while they are essentially being asked to "stay in their cellars", "evacuate the children to the countryside or England" (WWII references) and monitor the email/social media of family and loved ones to see who is dying. And then no one can attend funerals.

The City Council clearly recognizes the urgency of COVID-19 as it has declared an emergency and created protections for renters, mortgage holders and others. Its meeting tomorrow will focus on COVID-19. I am happy to continue proposing ideas and so on to the City (and County) and focus on that. (I’ve gotten some helpful responses, too, from Rental Resources and Supervisor Provenza.) It's not only difficult to focus on anything else, to be asked to do so is cruel.

Davis City Council: Please immediately postpone the process for ARC. It's an abuse of community process, and it's an abuse of Commissioners, their families and loved ones… some of whom will not be with us in one week.

• Todd Edelman (member of BTSSC – only for identification purposes)

Davis Children (in the same family) watch President Trump watch Commission meetings.
Photo credit: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/38702878033371156/

Please also see Roberta Millstein's March 17 letter to the City Council., "Need to focus on essentials for City's COVID-19 Emergency"

By Eileen M. Samitz

This Tuesday, at 7pm the City Council meeting will include a presentation by Dr. Ron Chapman the Yolo County Public Health Officer.  The meeting will be televised and public comment will be allowed via voice-mail in and email since public attendance cannot be allowed due to COVID-19 precautions (details below).

What needs to be addressed at this meeting is the need for UCD to help with the control of the COVID-19 outbreak like UCLA is doing by planning now, ahead of a surge in the disease spread.  This needs to include utilizing campus facilities including UCD vacant dorm and student apartment spaces. Several weeks ago, Governor Newsom stated that he was communicating with UC and the State Universities to plan ahead for use of their student housing and other campus facilities to help with space needed for quarantine and hospital overspill.

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A book review by Nathan Hendrix

            In 2012, truck driver Kristopher “KC” Clarke disappeared from the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation in North Dakota.  Yellow Bird:  Oil, Murder, and a Woman’s Search for Justice in Indian Country by Sierra Crane Murdoch is the story of his disappearance, the reservation he disappeared from, and the woman that spent years searching for him.  Lissa Yellow Bird has led a colorful life; she has struggled with addiction, worked as a stripper, and spent time incarcerated.  

When she heard about KC’s disappearance, she decided it was up to her to find him.  This search became an obsession that damaged her relationship with her children and put her in conflict with the powers that be in the reservation.  Clarke worked as a truck driver for a company that hauled water to and waste water from drilling sites.  He had told people he was going to visit family, turned in his company credit card, and then disappeared.  He didn’t take any of his belongings and his truck wasn’t found for months. 

            Beyond the disappearance of KC Clarke, the history of the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation is also covered in this book, including how their original homesteads were flooded when the government dammed the river that passed through the reservation. Crane describes the poverty that was rampant in the reservation prior to the oil boom that brought in millions of dollars. The oil money meant financial security to some, but it also brought drug addiction and tragedy to others. The reservation is shown as a kind of Wild West, where reservation police have no jurisdiction over non-Indians on the reservation and local police have no jurisdiction on reservation land.

            Yellow Bird is a glimpse into a culture that not many have experienced and clearly shows the danger that lax regulations pose to people and the environment.  The history of the reservation is fascinating and the damage done by oil companies is horrifying, but the book drags when the author delves too deeply into Lissa’s family life.  I enjoyed Yellow Bird and I look forward to Ms. Murdoch’s next book.

Nathan Hendrix is an avid reader and paramedic who grew up in Davis, but now lives in Rocklin with his wife and daughter.

By Dunn Bobbing

Davis School Children Demand Schools Reopen.

Kids claim parents are terrible roommates and explain they are tired of trying to teach them how to do Common Core math.

“My dad is an idiot. I can’t imagine what they taught in school back then. He can’t do even the really basic stuff I learned like last year,” said one third grader. “He kept muttering something about ‘carrying’?  What does ‘carrying’ have to do with math?”

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